If John Edwards' sex scandal had broken in January rather than in August, who would have Edwards’ absence helped?

Howard Wolfson, Hillary Clinton's campaign director, claimed that with Edwards out of the race, she might have carried the Iowa caucuses, instead of finishing third, Rob Christensen reports.

Highly unlikely, said David Redlawsk, the director of the Hawkeye Poll.

When Iowa Edwards supporters were asked who their second choice might have been if Edwards was not viable, 51 percent Barack Obama and 32 percent said Clinton.

"Monday's claim from Howard Wolfson that two-thirds of Edwards supporters would have supported Clinton is just not supported in the data collected directly from those who actually participated in the caucuses," Redlawsk said. "Had Edwards not been running, and if nothing else had changed, my data suggest that Obama would have ended up even further ahead of Clinton than he was."