A Florida professor has weighed in on the definition of the South.

In a piece in the St. Petersburg Times Sunday, English professor Diane Roberts quotes Chris Kromm, director of the Institute for Southern Studies in Durham, on the litany of reasons people give for removing North Carolina from the South:

"Every time a Southern state starts voting for Democrats, people say, 'Oh, that's not the real South,' " says Kromm. When Barack Obama won North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, some "wanted to magically declare them somehow un-Southern."

The "Southern" parts of the South seem to be shrinking, at least to those who define "Southern" as white right-wingers who say "y'all." ...

North Carolina isn't Southern because it's attracting Midwestern retirees, Latinos and tech types. Plus, there's the Research Triangle, the constellation of great universities, labs and libraries so despised by Sen. Jesse Helms. Real Southerners don't cotton to book learning.

Roberts argues that North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are not aberrations, but the beginning of the "New South we've been promising ourselves since 1865."

Previously: Whistling Past North Carolina, parts 1, 2 and 3

Chris Kromm says provisional ballots won't help John McCain.

In a post on Facing South, the head of the Institute for Southern Studies says that the number of provisional ballots will likely be lower than in past elections because of one-stop voting and notes that they have "historically favored" the Democratic candidate.

Historically, North Carolina has had a high number of provisionals: as the N.C. Coalition for Verified Voting notes in their helpful run-down on the issue, N.C. had 77,469 provisional ballots in 2004 and 92,621 in the 2006 mid-terms. The 2004 number put N.C. in the top five nationally for provisional votes in 2004.

The number of provisional ballots is expected to be lower in 2008 because of same-day voter registration, a reform passed in 2007. The top reason people vote provisionally, and end up having their ballots rejected, is because they are not registered. In N.C., where 42% of the electorate voted during the early voting period, voters can register and vote at the same time during early voting.

He says the provisional ballots won't help McCain make up an 11,690-vote deficit to Barack Obama in North Carolina when the final votes are certified.

Analysts say North Carolina is a presidential toss-up.

A quick survey of the major political observers in the days leading up to the election shows an even split, with several refusing to predict:

Liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas: Obama by seven points

Republican strategist Ed Rollins: Obama by three points

Newsweek editor Eleanor Clift: Obama by three points

Talk show host Bill Maher: Obama by three points

Arianna Huffington: Obama by two points

Roll Call editor Mort Kondracke: Obama by one point

Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver: Obama by 0.6 of a point

Liberal N.C. blogger Kirk Ross: Obama by 0.5 to 1.5 points

University of Virginia prof Larry Sabato: Obama win

Republican firm CAJ Consultants: Obama win

N.C. consultant Gary Pearce: Obama win

UNC-Chapel Hill prof Leroy Towns: Obama win

N.C. consultant John Davis: Obama win

Conservative N.C. blogger Dan Gearino: Obama win

Facing South's Chris Kromm: Leans Obama

Conservative columnist George F. Will: Obama win "not startling"

Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up

Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

New York Times: Toss-up

MSNBC's Chuck Todd: Nailbiter

Magic Eight Ball: McCain win

Winston-Salem Journal editor Ken Otterbourg: McCain win

Republican consultant Karl Rove: McCain win

N.C. consultant Carter Wrenn: McCain win

N.C. State politics prof Andy Taylor: McCain win

Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza: McCain by two points

Politico editor Charles Mahtesian: McCain by two points

"Hardball" host Chris Matthews: McCain by two points

NPR analyst Juan Williams: McCain by two points

U.S. Sen. Richard Burr: McCain by three to six points 

Red State editor Erick Erickson: McCain by three points

Conservative blogger Ed Morrissey: McCain by three points

Conservative editor Fred Barnes: McCain by five points

Chris Cillizza says North Carolina will go for John McCain.

In an updated electoral map on The Washington Post's Web site, The Fix blogger keeps the state in the "red state column," but he hedges his bets in the text.

"Similarly, North Carolina, which we are giving to McCain, could go for Obama, according to aggregated polling," he writes.

Republican political consultant Carter Wrenn and Democratic consultant Gary Pearce say McCain will win the state, while liberal think tank director Chris Kromm says Obama can win.

Chris Kromm says Barack Obama can win North Carolina.

In an interview in Harper's Magazine, the head of the Institute for Southern Studies argues that Demographic changes and turnout could hand the state to the Democratic candidate:

He could definitely pull it off and his chances are growing. If he wins, it will be for a number of factors, starting with the economy. Unemployment could hit 8 percent here and two key sectors of the economy, manufacturing and finance, have been devastated. That’s been critical in terms of Obama winning support from unaffiliated white voters and conservative Democrats who often vote for Republicans. Second, Obama has really mobilized the core Democratic base of African-Americans and urban voters, far more than Al Gore or John Kerry did. And third, core Republican voters here are just not exited about McCain. A lot of Christian conservatives don’t identify with him. The situation is really ripe for Obama to take the state.

He adds that economic problems in the mountains could depress the traditional Republican strength there.

Chris Kromm revisits the potential spoiler.

In a post on Facing South, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies notices a trend in the presidential polling in North Carolina:

Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr, the former Congressman from Georgia, will be on the ballot in NC (despite the state's enormously restrictive ballot access laws). But most of the polls that showed double-digit leads for McCain in North Carolina didn't include Barr.

Since August, any poll that has included Barr has shown McCain with no more than a six point advantage, or even put Obama in the lead. The last two polls — from PPP (Democratic) and Civitas Institute (Repulican) — include Barr, and they show McCain and Obama exactly tied.

According to Pollster.com, Barr has received between zero and six percent support in polls done since May.

Earlier: Presidential spoilers in N.C. history. 

Chris Kromm wonders if Barack Obama is leaving the South.

In a post on Facing South, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies points to a recent story in the Wall Street Journal that says Obama has focused on the traditional swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan this month.

Kromm wonders what effect a narrower map would have on North Carolina.

"A lurking question: if Obama pulls up stakes in North Carolina and other used-to-be-battlegrounds in the final weeks, what will that mean for down-ticket Democrats counting on his voter-turnout coattails?" he writes. "Or has the Obama base in those states already been energized?"

Chris Kromm says the Jesse Helms obituaries missed the point.

In a lengthy post on the Facing South blog, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies said the mainstream media "down-played, ignored or even denied Helms' prejudices."

"To say Sen. Helms held deep prejudices against many — especially African-Americans and gays and lesbians — isn't a matter of opinion; it's all part of the historical record," he writes.

He attacks the idea that Helms was a "straight talker."

"Helms the strategic politician ... knew that by cultivating a straight-talk persona he could shift attention from the regressive content of what he was saying to a defense of his right to 'speak his mind' — but his fans and voters got the real message," he writes.

And he says Helms was not an "iconoclast."

"Helms' antics and positions did on many occasions put him at the far-right extremes of political debate. But he was by no means a marginal, fringe politician, and such a portrayal ignores Helms' ongoing popularity and his central role in U.S. politics for three decades," he writes.

Chris Kromm says that political analysts are asking the wrong question.

The debate over North Carolina's Electoral College votes will matter for the first time since The Band held its farewell concert should not be whether Barack Obama can beat John McCain, he argues on the Facing South blog.

As is often the case, the issue might not be whether N.C. has the potential to go for Obama — it's whether Obama and the Democrats will invest (or be able to invest, given other competing priorities) the resources, time and energy that would allow Obama to capitalize on that potential. 

Kromm says the case can be made for either Obama or McCain winning the state.

Dome tends to agree with Kromm on this point. Clearly, North Carolina is not going to be in the top tier of swing states in 2008, but Obama's unprecedented fundraising ability could allow him to spend money in more marginal states — even if only to drain McCain's resources.

"Lamont Williams" also made calls in Ohio.

The bogus robocaller — currently being hunted by the State Board of Elections for giving misinformation to black voters in North Carolina — also made calls in Ohio last year, according to Facing South.

Chris Kromm, executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies, found the connection with help from a reader:

Facing South has learned that these calls -- even down to the name of the supposed caller -- are very similar to calls used last year in Ohio. In November 2007, a voter in Columbus, Ohio wrote in to the Buckeye State Blog with this eerily familiar story:

I just got a weird robo-call that I suspect may be a form of voter suppression, albeit kinda braindead. From memory, a stentorian voice reminiscent of James Earl Jones says: "Hello. This is Lamont Williams. In a few days you should be getting a voter registration form in the mail. Please fill it out and return promptly and you will be able to vote. Thank you.

Update: Voters also received similar calls in Virginia.