The Cook Political Report ranks North Carolina a presidential "toss-up."

Noted Washington political analyst Charlie Cook has previously included the state's 15 Electoral College votes in the "Leans Republican" category.

He is the first of the big three analysts to say the state is in play. The Rothenberg Political Report still calls the state "Leans McCain," while CQ Politics says it "Leans Republican."

However, MSNBC's political editors, Republican consultant Karl Rove and the Atlantic Monthly have said it is a toss-up.

Charlie Cook says the race is about U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

In a luncheon with reporters at Elon University this afternoon, the editor of The Cook Political Report said that the race will turn on Dole's record and image.

He said Democratic rival Kay Hagan only has to meet a minimum qualification.

"It's not about her," he said. "It's a referendum up or down on Elizabeth Dole and to a lesser extent Republicans. Kay Hagan is a vessel."

He said that Republicans will try to "disqualify" Hagan or make her unacceptable to voters.

"When you say you can't beat somebody with nobody, I don't know that that's true," he said. "Not to call Kay Hagan a nobody, but I've seen a lot of nobodies get elected to Congress — and some get re-elected." 

He said the race will turn on whether voters think of Dole as an influential Washington politician or someone who lives in Washington and is out of touch. 

"It's going to be one or the other," he said.  

Charlie Cook says Barack Obama will help North Carolina Democrats.

Speaking to political reporters at Elon University this afternoon, the editor of The Cook Political Report said that he doesn't think Senate candidate Kay Hagan or gubernatorial candidate Beverly Perdue needs to tie themselves too closely to Obama to benefit.

Though Perdue sent black voters a mailer in the Democratic primary with a photo of herself and Obama and Hagan has echoed many of his campaign themes, neither has appeared at a campaign rally to date.

(Both were at a Charlotte event that was canceled because of plane difficulties, however.)

Still, Cook said that Obama's extensive field operation in North Carolina will bring a higher percentage of young voters and black voters to the polls who will support other Democrats on the ballot, regardless of how closely tied the candidates are to Obama.

"While they're in the neighborhood, they'll probably pull the donkey's tail," he said.

Charlie Cook says U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole may not have worked hard enough. 

In a meeting with political reporters at Elon University his afternoon, the editor of The Cook Political Report said that first-term senators are typically more aggressive. 

"Normally, when you get elected to the Senate, you're a lot younger and a lot more aggressive and proactive and you hit the ground running and you work your tail off for six years," he said. "Then you get re-elected and then you work pretty hard for the next six and then you get re-elected and you can kind of ease off on the throttle and go on automatic pilot."

But he said that Dole, who was elected in 2002 after serving in two Cabinet posts, may have taken too much for granted.

"When you get elected and you're not that young and you're a Republican in the South, maybe you're not quite as visible as you needed to have been and maybe you haven't been quite as aggressive as you needed to have been and in a bad year you can get yourself into a race," he said.  

Cook currently ranks North Carolina as "leans Republican." 

Charlie Cook will speak about the 2008 elections at Elon University Monday.

The editor of The Cook Political Report and analyst for the National Journal Group will speak at a smaller luncheon at 11:30 a.m. and will give a speech at 7:30 p.m. in Whitley Auditorium. 

The topic is "Looking Ahead to the 2008 Elections," natch.

Cook recently changed the presidential race in North Carolina to a "toss up" between Barack Obama and John McCain. He ranks the Senate race between Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan as "leans Republican," and the gubernatorial race between Pat McCrory and Beverly Perdue as "leans Democrat."

He has been described as "perhaps the best non-partisan tracker of Congressional races" by Washington Post columnist David Broder. 

Elon, a private university near Greensboro, is home to the respected Elon University Poll. 

More out-of-state money is headed here.

The Republican Governors Association plans to spend money boosting Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory's gubernatorial bid this fall, The Politico reports.

Political analyst Charlie Cook rates three as safe seats, and two – Indiana and Missouri – as tossups. Ayers said his organization intends to invest in those contests and use its cash to turn the races for Democrat-held seats in North Carolina and Delaware into tighter contests.

Ayers believes that is possible, given the RGA’s cash advantage. The organization Tuesday reported having nearly $21 million in cash, compared to the Democratic Governors Association’s $13 million.

The RGA will allocate its money in three ways: through direct contributions to the candidates, donations to state parties and independent expenditures on advertising or voter turnout operations, which could boost the entire Republican ticket in some states.

Hat Tip: Ed Cone

The Cook Political Report has downgraded U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry's re-election chances.

The nonpartisan political analysts have changed the Cherryville Republican's race against Hickory attorney Daniel Johnson from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."

The report still rates Concord Republican Rep. Robin Hayes' rematch with Biscoe schoolteacher Larry Kissell as a "Toss Up."

All other Congressional races are rated as solidly favoring the incumbent, whether Republican or Democrat.

"While it's not likely that a majority of the races moved from "Solid" to "Likely" Republican will become competitive by November, the poor national climate for the GOP and the DCCC's unprecedented financial edge makes even very difficult districts for Democrats worth keeping tabs on," wriets House Editor David Wasserman.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently began airing radio ads attacking McHenry and Hayes.

Charlie Cook thinks things are looking up for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

The editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political analysis newsletter, has moved North Carolina's 2008 Senate race from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

The new rating means the race is "not considered competitive" and is "not likely to become closely contested." 

The change came on Thursday — after Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal announced he was running, but before he revealed he is gay on BlueNC.

The race had been listed as "Likely Republican" since Cook began rating 2008 on Nov. 15.

That rating means a race is "not considered competitive at this point" but has "the potential to become engaged."