U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre is mulling a Senate run.

The Lumberton Democrat told the Fayetteville Observer that he is considering running against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr in 2010.

The article quotes Democratic consultant Brad Crone on his chances:

"If McIntyre got in it, he'd be clearly your front-runner because of his status and his gravitas" as a six-term congressman, Crone said. "McIntyre could be a definite player in it. He's got a very good resume, he has done a very effective job as far as constituent service is concerned."

But McIntyre would have challenges, Crone said.

"He’s worked hard in his congressional district, but he's really not known in the northeast or here in the Piedmont, or the western part of the state," he said.

State Sen. Malcolm Graham, a Charlotte Democrat, told the paper he's also taking "a casual look" at a run, and Fayetteville resident Nathaniel Cooper says he will run.

Previously: McIntyre looking at a Senate run.

Tobacco companies and growers bought full page ads in several newspapers across the state today to help boost opposition to a possible increase in the state cigarette tax.

The newly formed N.C. Taxpayers Alliance emphasizes the estimated 50,000 jobs in the state linked to tobacco production and warns that higher taxes will harm the industry. Gov. Beverly Perdue has proposed a $1-per-pack increase, though the Senate is expected to reduce that number.

"It will hurt farm workers and tobacco factory workers," the ad says, "It will hurt convenience stores and their workers."

The ads encourage readers to call their local legislators and encourage them to oppose a tax increase. The advertisements appeared in newspapers in Wilmington, Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Wilson, Greenville, Burlington, Gastonia and Boone.

The members of the alliance are tobacco companies: Reynolds American, Lorillard, Universal Leaf and Swedish Match, along with the N.C. Tobacco Growers Association and the Cigar Association of America.

See a copy of the ad in the Wilmington Star-News by clicking the attachment.

Barack Obama won the nomination thanks to Southern cities.

An analysis of voting patterns by the Center for Rural Strategies shows that the Democratic presidential nominee won cities in the South handily, helping deliver the region to him despite his losses in rural counties.

Sen. Obama won the Southern cities by about the same margin that Clinton won Appalachia — and urban areas in the South delivered more than twice the number of votes as were cast in all of Appalachia.

They note that Hillary Clinton winning Appalachia by 750,000 votes and Obama winning Southern cities by double that number.

In North Carolina at least, Obama clearly ran an urban-centered campaign, focusing on the Interstate 85 corridor from Charlotte to Raleigh, with side trips to Fayetteville.

And with stops like Research Triangle Park, he was clearly aiming for the New South — a strategy that failed in the past for candidates like Harvey Gantt.

As noted: previously, Democratic consultant Brad Crone says that things have changed.

Hat Tip: Chris Kromm

The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies will hold a panel discussion Wednesday to discuss the possible impact of 527 organizations on the upcoming state and federal elections.

A 527 organization is a tax-exempt organization under federal tax code. The term often refers to advocacy groups, such as MoveOn.org and the Swift Vets and POWs for Truth, that avoid regulation by the Federal Election Commission and state elections.

It is illegal for such groups to coordinate advertising with campaigns.

The panel will include Republican consultant Carter Wrenn, Democratic consultant Brad Crone, N.C. Board of Elections Chairman Larry Leake and election law attorney James Bopp. WRAL-TV anchor David Crabtree will moderate.

The event will begin with a 5:30 p.m. reception at the Cardinal Club in Raleigh. The panels will be from 6:15 to 8 p.m. For more information, contact phil.strach@ogletreedeakins.com.

Randy Parton will speak out Friday.

The country singer, who has recently been the focus of a bitter fight over a theater project in Roanoke Rapids, will hold a press conference at the Umstead Hotel in Cary.

Additional Parton family members will attend, according to a news release. It did not specify which Partons, but Dome presumes it's not his sister, Dolly.

"This will provide Mr. Parton an opportunity to set the record straight and to tell his side of the story," said political consultant Brad Crone, who is representing Parton. "Mr. Parton is looking forward to explaining his work and letting the people of Roanoke Rapids and the state of North Carolina know the inside story on the project."

Janet Cowell raised $210,260 by the end of 2007.

The Democratic candidate for state treasurer raised $187,222 from major donors, including state Sen. Martin Nesbitt, Public Policy Polling owner Dean Debnam, political consultant Brad Crone and Capitol Broadcasting owner James Goodmon.

She also raised $16,608 from donors who gave less than $50, and $6,430 from political action committees, including Wal-Mart's PAC, NARAL Pro-Choice North Carolina and state Sen. William Purcell's campaign, according to a campaign finance report filed with the State Board of Elections last week.

At the same time, she spent $69,354 on consulting, database software and staff salaries.

That left her with cash on hand of $137,396.

Pat McCrory namedropped no fewer than three North Carolina cities in his speech. 

At his kickoff on the steps of the Jamestown public library today, he noted that he grew up in the small town outside Greensboro. 

"It is here in Jamestown where I got my values," he said. "I then moved to Salisbury to Catawba College where I attained my higher education and I got my teaching degree. ... And from Salisbury after college, I moved to Charlotte, and the people of Charlotte allowed me to become a leader." 

Democratic pollster Tom Jensen points out that all three are on Interstate 85, where he so far is polling the best. (You may recall that polling consultant Brad Crone argued a while back that the road is the state's new political lifeline.)

In addition, Salisbury is the home of one of his GOP rivals, Bill Graham.

Just as the Charlotte mayor chose to officially start his campaign in Jamestown, though, Graham went to his childhood hometown of Dunn for his kickoff. Fred Smith, who lives in Clayton, went to the former orphanage in Raleigh, where he grew up.

Bob Orr didn't have a kickoff. 

Are the five gubernatorial candidates wasting their money?

In an article in the Burlington Times-News, Democratic political consultant Brad Crone says he isn't surprised to see the primary races underway when the incumbent, Gov. Mike Easley, can't run again because of term limits.

"Because it's an open seat, it's full throttle for both parties," Crone said. "Because so much is at stake, there is the higher level of intensity that I think you've seen in past elections."

He said campaigning was just as heavy before the 1984 election, but the Internet has made the process much more public.

But Republican political consultant Ballard Everett told the newspaper that while political junkies may be following the race closely, most of the voters aren't. He said he wasn't sure it was wise for candidates to campaign so heavily right now.

"I just think they’re spending a lot of money up front that they don't need to be spending and doing a lot of things that nobody cares about," he said.

Brad Crone says he made a math mistake.

The Democratic political consultant, who is starting a new monthly poll with Republican consultant Chris Sinclair, said that a Dome reader's complaint about the crosstabs is correct.

"I made a mistake on the gender tabs pulling respondent data from the wrong column," he wrote Dome. "It was an oversight on my part."

The new figures show Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue with 38 percent of women and 36 percent of men and state Treasurer Richard Moore with 32 percent of women and 26 percent of men, among likely Democratic voters.

He said the poll is "solid," despite what critics have said.

"If they don't like the data then that's their problem," he wrote Dome. "We are developing a new poll and will work hard for it and will stand behind it."

Has your family hit the limit when it comes to new taxes?

That was a question in a recent poll by Brad Crone and Chris Sinclair, a Democratic and a Republican consultant who hope to sell subscriptions to their new polling service.

Alert reader bnartist questioned the question, noting that Crone had recently used it in a poll for the N.C. Association of Realtors, which opposed a local-option transfer tax.

Crone said the question came from a focus group in January.

"A guy was sitting there and he said, 'My family has hit the limit when it comes to new taxes,'" Crone recalled.

He said that he has since used the question in two statewide polls because it helps him judge "the tax factor" in people's thinking on an issue.

Also: Crone sent Dome the crosstabs on the Democratic gubernatorial race, which some readers had contested. Polling geeks, have at it!