Why did Pat McCrory beat Fred Smith?

As with the Democratic gubernatorial race, it's dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions, but here are a few educated guesses about how the Charlotte mayor won the primary.

He had a strong base. As a seven-term mayor of the largest city in North Carolina, McCrory had a larger pool of supporters than Smith. Playing on his childhood in Jamestown, he made a strong play for the Triad, where no candidate had a base.

He raised money. Aided by his ties to the Charlotte business community, he quickly made up for lost time, raising $1.2 million in the first half of the year — more than any of his Republican competitors, all of whom had been running for a year.

His ads were effective. McCrory had four ads in heavy rotation on jobs, immigration, corruption and leadership. Smith had two ads; Bill Graham just one. McCrory's ads were distinctive, with a clean white background that stood out.

He learned quickly. After initial missteps in his "garage-band" phase, Smith shuffled his staff and brought in a star consultant. He picked up on concerns about illegal immigration and corruption in Raleigh, cutting into Smith's core message.

His competitors ran poor campaigns. Smith ran an old-school campaign based on barbecues and spent money on a book and a song. Graham ran his TV ads two years too soon then parted ways with his consultant in the home stretch. Bob Orr was underfunded.

The Legionnaires are no longer with us.

Since January, the Legion of Dome has been graced with the presence of five correspondents who helped us cover the 2008 gubernatorial primary and other political news.

They were chosen through a partnership with UNC-Chapel Hill's journalism program.

Karin Dryhurst, a recent graduate, should have earned extra credit towards a degree in constitutional law for covering Bob Orr. She proved her mettle with the governor's press office over an item on Easley not showing his colors.

Sam Wineka, a recent graduate, taught us a lot about how Bill Graham spends his millions: A 12,000-square-foot house, dresses owned by Princess Di and an office building for his consultant. Not to mention how he earned his money.

Cori Sue Morris, a recent graduate, sparred with the governor's press office over a pronoun slip that turned out to be meaningful after all. She also cornered Kenneth Starr over representing Blackwater at Campbell University.

Matt Tomsic, a rising senior, dug into Fred Smith's business ventures, learning about how he built roads, ran a steakhouse and checked his employees' immigration status. He also checked into Smith's somewhat surprising reading list.

Emily Stephenson, a rising junior, researched Beverly Perdue's extensive legislative record, and covered two Barack Obama rallies and Thomas Wright's expulsion. She also caught a candidate essentially admitting to smoking in the boys room.

If the future of journalism depends on the likes of these correspondents, we're in good hands. We wish them the best of luck in their careers. They will be sorely missed.

A scan of personal blogs around the state shows Democratic candidate for governor Beverly Perdue ahead of opponent Richard Moore.

Neither candidate garnered all ringing endorsements, with many bloggers commenting on the negativity of the gubernatorial campaigns.

Sanya of Beams of Light Ministries said she supported Perdue after she pulled her negative ads.

Some bloggers said they didn't find inspiration in either candidate. One said he edged toward Perdue because of the possibility of "breaking another glass ceiling." Another leaned toward Moore because of his "slightly lower" tuition increases.

No Republican candidate for governor appeared to come out on top. One blogger mentioned Bill Graham but touted Pat McCrory's experience as mayor, while another urged voters to vote for Fred Smith.

A volunteer for the Lawson for Congress campaign endorsed Bob Orr on a Ron Paul forum because of his "in-depth" discussion of the issues.

Pat McCrory is doing well so far.

With 34 counties partially reporting, the Republican gubernatorial candidate has more than 44 percent of the vote — comfortably above the 40 percent threshold required to avoid a primary runoff.

His chief rival, Fred Smith, is at 38 percent.

Bill Graham was pulling in around 9 percent and Bob Orr around 8 percent. 

The numbers will be fluid all night as the votes trickle in, but they have remained fairly steady in this race over the past hour. 

Earlier, McCrory had worried that he would lose a runoff that would attract more die-hard voters. 

Speculation is rampant about the potential for a primary runoff.

On the Republican side, gubernatorial candidates Fred Smith and Pat McCrory are running neck and neck, but a stronger than expected showing from the back of the pack by either Bob Orr or Bill Graham could deny them an outright win.

On the Democratic side, a four-way lieutenant governor's race between Dan Besse, Walter Dalton, Hampton Dellinger and Pat Smathers could be similarly close.

To win outright, a candidate must get more than 40 percent of the vote. If more than one candidate gets over that benchmark, the top vote-getter wins outright.

But if no one gets over 40, the second-place finisher can request a recount. To do so, the candidate must make a request in writing within nine days — including weekends — of Election Day, or noon on Thursday, May 15.

If a runoff election is held, it would be on June 24.

Pat McCrory and Fred Smith are in a statistical dead heat in the Republican race for governor.

According to Public Policy Polling's latest survey, McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte, leads Smith, a state senator, by four points. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.

Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham had six percent and former Supreme Court justice Bob Orr had five percent. Crop duster and pecan grower Elbie Powers had one percent.

PPP surveyed 662 likely Republican primary voters on May 3rd and 4th.

Bob Orr will hold a party at his campaign office.

The Republican gubernatorial candidate and his family will watch election returns at his campaign office not far from Raleigh's Five Points neighborhood on Tuesday night.

The party starts at 7:30 p.m. on the second floor of the headquarters at 1550 Glenwood Ave., above the Stratas & Weathers law office.

Previously: Perdue, McCrory and Moore's plans.

No matter who wins, the next governor will be less friendly to the lottery.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Moore called it a "fool's game," while Beverly Perdue said that she would limit advertising.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Orr has worked on a lawsuit to overturn the lottery, while Bill Graham, Fred Smith and Pat McCrory say they are not big fans.

Still, none of the candidates say would spend much political capital seeking to overturn the lottery, including Orr.

"The governor is required to execute the laws of the state whether you agree with them or not," he said. (N&O)

Beverly Perdue is getting ready for a big party on Tuesday.

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate has invited supporters to an Election Night Party Tuesday at the North Raleigh Hilton. Doors open at 7:30 p.m.

Her chief rival in the primary, Richard Moore, has told reporters he will be available roughly 30 minutes after the election is called at his campaign headquarters.

On the Republican side, Pat McCrory will be holding a Primary Night Watch Party at the Marriott SouthPark in Charlotte, starting at 7 p.m. 

No word yet on the other Republican contenders, Fred Smith, Bob Orr and Bill Graham. 

Take from that what you will.

How much have gubernatorial candidates loaned their campaigns?

Here's a quick guide to the amount of money each of the major candidates have loaned their campaigns, according to campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections.

Figures are for the total loans still outstanding.

Democrats

Richard Moore: $1.25 million

Beverly Perdue: $905,000*

Republicans

Fred Smith: $2.4 million

Bill Graham: $1.6 million

Bob Orr: $20,000

Pat McCrory: $0

* Includes $275,000 outstanding loan from her husband, Robert Eaves Jr., for her race for lieutenant governor in 2000.

Previously: How much candidates loaned themselves by the end of 2007.

Correction: A previous version of this post misstated Moore's total loan amount.