Barr was a spoiler after all

Bob Barr was a spoiler in North Carolina after all.

Though the Libertarian presidential candidate made only token appearances in the state and received a miniscule number of votes in November, he still got more votes than the margin of difference.

Barr's 25,722 votes were more than one and a half times the 14,192 margin that made Barack Obama winner of the state over John McCain. Put another way, Barr had about 0.6 percent of the vote, while the margin was about 0.3 percent.

That puts Barr into elite company in North Carolina.

As previously noted, there have been five third-party candidates who earned enough votes to affect the race between the Republican and Democrat in North Carolina since 1908.

They are: George Wallace in 1968, Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, Ross Perot in 1992 and in 1996 and John Anderson in 1980. (Technically, Roosevelt did not earn more than the margin of Woodrow Wilson's win, but he came in second so we count him.)

However, Barr earned the smallest percentage of any of the other spoilers, and the number of write-in votes was close enough to the margin this year to almost qualify on its own.

Update: Greensboro blogger Ed Cone called it in mid-May.

Obama's final margin: 14,912 votes

President-elect Barack Obama carried North Carolina in a squeaker.

With all the provisional votes counted, Obama broadened his narrow lead over Republican John McCain in North Carolina, Rob Christensen reports.

President-elect Obama carried the state with 49.7 percent to McCain’s 49.38, a difference of 14,192 votes, according to the final count by the State Board of Elections staff. Before the provisional votes were counted Obama had a lead of 13,746 votes.

The vote won’t become final until the State Board of Elections meets Tuesday in Raleigh.

Obama won 2,142,649 votes, compared to 2,128,457 votes after the provisional ballots were counted.  Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate won 25,722 and there were 13,942 votes cast for write-in candidates.

This was the first time that North Carolina had gone Democratic since 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter defeated Republican Gerald Ford.

Obama 47, McCain 46, Barr 3

The presidential race in North Carolina is too close to call.

A new poll by the conservative Civitas Institute shows Democrat Barack Obama with 47 percent, Republican John McCain with 46 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr with three percent.

Five percent were undecided.

"All three races are too close to call and are inside the margin of error of our polling," said executive director Francis De Luca. "With very few days remaining until the election, two big factors will decide the outcome of all three races — who votes and which way the remaining undecided voters break."

Polls taken in the last month generally have generally showed Obama ahead by one to seven points, though McCain has been ahead in two recent polls and the two were tied in another. 

The survey of 600 likely voters was taken on Oct. 27-29 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Va. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Barr makes his case

Bob Barr made his pitch in Durham Tuesday.

The Libertarian presidential candidate, the only third-party candidate on the North Carolina ballot, argued that there is little difference between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.

"Nothing will change," he told a group of about 100 students at Duke University. "Both want to spend our money, increasingly huge amuonts of our money."

Barr was a Republican when he represented Georgia in the U.S. House of Representatives. As a Libertarian, he is polling at one or two percent in many states, enough to make a difference in a closely contested state such as North Carolina.

Speaking for about 45 minutes, he argued that the $700 billion federal bailout was distorting the free market, that Congress is ineffectual and that vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin did not answer questions at a debate. (N&O

McCain 50, Obama 48

A new poll shows John McCain in the lead.

According to a recent survey by Rasmussen Reports, the Republican presidential candidate had 50 percent and Democrat Barack Obama had 48 percent. Libertarian Bob Barr, the only third party candidate who will be on the state ballot, was not included.

"This is the first time the Republican has been ahead since the middle of September," the pollsters write. "Prior to that he had been leading Obama for months."

Obama has been ahead in 15 North Carolina polls and tied in three taken in October. McCain has not been ahead in a poll since the beginning of the month. 

The telephone survey of 700 likely voters was taken on Oct. 23, 2008. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. 

Obama 48, McCain 45, Barr 2

Barack Obama has a narrow lead in a new poll.

According to a new survey by the conservative Civitas Institute, the Democratic presidential candidate had 48 percent support, Republican John McCain had 45 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr had two percent.

Seven percent were undecided.

"Since John McCain has begun to campaign in North Carolina, his numbers seem to be improving," said executive director Francis De Luca, "He's been able to pick up two points on Obama in the past two weeks according to our polling."

The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted Oct. 18-20 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Va. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. 

Barr coming to N.C. next Tuesday

North Carolina really is in play.

Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr is coming to the Triangle on Tuesday, Oct. 28. It will be his first appearance since May, when he attended the state Libertarian Party convention.

Barr will speak at Duke University at 5 p.m., then at UNC-Chapel Hill at 8 p.m.

He is the only third-party candidate to appear on the North Carolina ballot. Some have argued with a tight race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain that he could be a spoiler.

Barr has polled between one and five percent in North Carolina polls since September, although he is not always included.  

Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 1

Barack Obama has a slim lead in North Carolina.

According to a recent survey by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, the Democratic presidential candidate had 49 percent, Republican John McCain had 46 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr had one percent.

Three percent were undecided.

"For the longest time Barack Obama basically had free rein in North Carolina, but John McCain is finally starting to make some visits and put some money in here," said president Dean Debnam. "With both campaigns contesting strongly here North Carolina looks like it will be one of the closest states in the country on election night."

The survey of 1,196 likely voters was taken on Oct. 11-12. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. 

Obama 48, McCain 43, Barr 2

Barack Obama is in the lead in another poll.

According to a recent survey by the conservative Citivas Institute, the Democratic presidential candidate had 48 percent, Republican John McCain had 43 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr had two percent.

"The amount of money Obama is spending on television in North Carolina is finally paying dividends," said executive director Francis De Luca. "Obama's ability to capitalize on the financial crisis and to outspend McCain in North Carolina gives him a strong advantage."

De Luca said Obama is getting 37 percent of the white vote, what it considers the threshold for him to win North Carolina.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Oct. 6-8 by TelOpinion Research of Alexandria, Va. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Obama 50, McCain 44, Barr 2

Barack Obama maintains his lead in a new poll.

According to a recent survey by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, the Democratic presidential candidate had 50 percent, Republican John McCain had 44 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr had 2 percent.

Four percent were undecided. 

Several recent polls have shown Obama with a lead over McCain. Pollsters cite his increasing strength among Democratic voters.

"If 80 percent or more of Democrats in North Carolina really end up voting for Obama then John McCain is finished here," said president Dean Debnam. "Republicans have won here in the Presidential race for years by taking anywhere from a fifth to a third of the Democratic vote, but if that doesn't happen this year the state is going to turn blue."

The automated survey of 1,202 likely voters was taken from Oct. 4-5. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

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