The Eastern District U.S. attorney usually has a strong political patron.

For most of the last 20 years, the federal prosecutor in Raleigh appointed by the president has been closely tied to Sen. Jesse Helms, except during Democratic administrations.

Here is a list of former U.S. attorneys and their patrons:

George Anderson: (1977-1980) Backed by Democratic Sen. Robert Morgan; appointed by President Jimmy Carter.

Sam Currin: (1981-1987) Former Helms aide. Backed by Helms; appointed by President Ronald Reagan.

Margaret Currin: (1988-1993) The wife of the previous U.S. attorney. Backed by Helms; appointed by Reagan.

Janice McKenzie Cole: (1994-2001) Backed by Democratic U.S. Rep. Eva Clayton; appointed by President Bill Clinton. (No Democratic senator at that time.)

Frank Whitney: (2002-2005) Former Helms legislative counsel. Backed by Republican lawyer Tom Ellis, Helms' longtime political strategist; appointed by President George W. Bush.

George Holding: (2005-present) Former Helms aide and Whitney's No. 2 at U.S. attorney's office. Backed by Ellis; appointed by Bush.

State Rep. Mickey Michaux says Kay Hagan will have wide latitude on the next three U.S. attorneys.

The Durham Democrat was appointed as a U.S. attorney from North Carolina's Middle District in 1977 by then Sen. Robert Morgan.

It was the last time that North Carolina had a Democratic senator during an incoming Democratic presidential administration. (The state's senators were both Republicans when Bill Clinton took office in 1992.)

Typically, the senator from the same party as the president has discretion over appointments in that state.

As a state legislator, Michaux had worked with Morgan, who was the state's attorney general before he won election to the Senate. He also had worked as an assistant district attorney and as a lawyer in private practice for many years.

He said a personal relationship with the senator and a solid resume are key to getting the job.

"Keep your eye on Senator Hagan," he said. "She may have had some lawyers who were helpful to her in her campaign. She may be getting some ideas from bar associations in each of the districts. But she has the upper hand."

Another North Carolinian's name is being floated for a move to Washington.

UNC president Erskine Bowles has reportedly been considered by president-elect Barack Obama's transition team for a post.

Washington would be familiar terrain. Bowles headed the Small Business Administration for the Clinton administration in 1993, worked as White House deputy chief of staff from 1994 to 1995 and as chief of staff from 1997 to 1998.

He was rumored to be interested in a position in a potential Gore administration, but ended up running unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2002 against Elizabeth Dole and in 2004 against Richard Burr.

As a former investment banker, Bowles is knowledgeable about finance, though his term at the helm of one of the country's most respected university systems could also give him an edge for an education post.

Though he is a lifelong Democrat, Bowles is also well-known for his ability to work well with Republicans, so a position requiring a bipartisan wrangler might be in the offing.

When asked to confirm the rumor, Bowles deflected.

"I'm very happy where I am, doing what I am doing," he wrote Dome. "I thought the rumor of the day was (former Gov. Jim) Hunt."

Previously: North Carolinians who might be under consideration

Update: Bowles tells Dome he has not been contacted about a post in Obama's administration. 

Who will win North Carolina?

As we've said before, anyone who says they know is lying because there are just too many variables at play in the presidential race here.

Below, Dome looks at the arguments for Republican John McCain taking the state on Nov. 4. To see our arguments for Democrat Barack Obama, see this earlier post.

HISTORY: This is a Red State. North Carolina has not gone for a Democrat since 1976. Jimmy Carter was a Southern governor boosted by post-Watergate anger. Bill Clinton's efforts in 1992 were for naught. Neither did well in their second try.

DEMOGRAPHICS: North Carolina is changing, but it's not changed yet. Sure, a lot of Northeasterners have moved here in recent years, but a significant portion of the state's voters are still native conservatives. Maybe in 2012 or 2016, but not now.

RACE: Obama's boost from higher black turnout will be more than offset by the reluctance of a percentage of white voters. Harvey Gantt lost Senate races twice and the most recent black statewide elected official was Ralph Campbell, who lost in 2004.

SUB-ROSA CAMPAIGN: McCain may not have spent as much on TV and radio ads, but his campaign and the Republican National Committee have flooded the state with negative robocalls and mailers. They're not getting the same publicity, but they could work.

PALIN: McCain may not be beloved by socially conservative Democrats, but his running mate is. Sarah Palin's rallies have drawn huge and enthusiastic crowds, and she may bring many of those same folks back to the polling places on Election Day as well.

MILITARY: McCain is a former prisoner of war with a lot of expertise in foreign policy. He's tailor-made for the state's veterans and active-duty service members at Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, not to mention members of the National Guard.

PUNDITS: Democratic political consultant Gary Pearce, Republican consultant Carter Wrenn, and Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza all say that Obama won't win North Carolina. Most others will only say Obama could win here.

John McCain's campaign says the election will be like past ones.

In a conference call with reporters this morning, McCain pollster Bill McInturff said that the breakdown of voters on Election Day will be similar to what it's been over the past 30 years.

He noted that Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton received roughly around 50 percent of the vote.

"It is very hard for a Democrat in a center-right country to get above that number," he said.

He argued that the historical voting patterns will be a "structural barrier" to Democrat Barack Obama winning the presidency.

McCain's national political director, Mike Duhaime, said that a high-level of cooperation between the campaign and the Republican National Committee will offset the spending advantage that Obama has.  

Did straight-ticket voting cost Bill Clinton North Carolina?

An Oct. 25, 2004 story in the Charlotte Observer cited a study that found that enough North Carolinians failed to vote for president in 1992 to potentially sway the vote:

A few thousand lost votes here or there usually don't make a difference in the final outcome of the presidential race in North Carolina: In 2000, for example, George Bush beat Al Gore by 13 percentage points.

But in a close election, confusion could have dramatic results. In 1992, the first President George Bush won North Carolina by a tiny margin, capturing 43.3 percent of the vote, compared with 42.7 percent for Bill Clinton. A Duke University study of ballot design in that election found that about 1 percent of North Carolinians had mistakenly failed to vote for president.

Both parties have reminded their volunteers to make sure potential voters know how to cast ballots for president.

"It may not seem like much, but even 1 percent of the vote can make a difference," said James Hamilton, a Duke University public policy professor and a co-author of the study.

The 2008 elections in North Carolina can be summed up as an analogy.

With Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain both competitive in the state's presidential race, it could turn out that 2008 is like...

* 1932: When Democrat Franklin Roosevelt won the state, presaging a long period of Democratic dominance of North Carolina's electoral votes.

* 1976: When post-Watergate anger helped Democrat Jimmy Carter buck the trend of the Southern Strategy, though the win turned out to be an exception to Republican rule.

* 1992: When Democrat Bill Clinton fought hard for the state and made it competitive, but the underlying Republican tendency handed the win to George H.W. Bush.

There is a fourth possibility, however. Regardless of who wins, this could be the year that kicks off a long period of competitive elections, with both parties trading the state back and forth.

That would be the most unusual possibility in a state that went — with one exception each — for the Democratic candidate every cycle between 1876 and 1964, and for the Republican every cycle between 1968 and 2004.

Barack Obama has made three times as many campaign stops in North Carolina as Bill Clinton.

The last time that a national presidential campaign heavily targeted North Carolina was the then-Arkansas governor's 1992 bid.

That year, Clinton participated in a teleconference at UNC-Chapel Hill, campaigned in Greensboro, spoke at Kinston, held a get-out-the-vote rally in Charlotte and took a bus tour through the state.

In all, Clinton visited five times, while Obama has made 18 stops, with crowds totaling 138,050.

To be fair, Clinton did not face a competitive primary that year in North Carolina and made all his stops during the general election, while Obama was in a fight to the death with Hillary Clinton.

Still, Obama has visited North Carolina six times since the May 6 primary.

Helped by the independent campaign of Ross Perot, Clinton came within a percentage point of beating President George H.W. Bush in North Carolina in 1992. He did not campaign here for re-election in 1996 and lost the state by nearly five percentage points.

Paul Begala went off-message in a recent e-mail.

In an e-mail sent to Kay Hagan supporters this week from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the former advisor to President Clinton undermined the DSCC's ad campaign, which has tarred U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole as ineffective.

"But making history means taking down powerful red-state incumbents like Mitch McConnell, Elizabeth Dole, and Roger Wicker," he writes. "That's not a typo. Democrats are running strong in Kentucky, North Carolina and Mississippi."

The Dole campaign gleefully posted an excerpt of the e-mail on their Web site, noting that a noted Democratic consultant considers Dole "powerful."

Begala has little wiggle room in the gaffe, since it was immediately followed by statement that it was "not a typo."