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The public opinion polls keep saying that President Obama is doing well in North Carolina. The national pundits keep saying there is little chance the president can win here. Here is Stu Rothenberg's take on MSNBC with Chuck Todd, courtesy of the Republican National Committee.
Political analysts Stuart Rothenberg and Nathan L. Gonzalez say U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole is in trouble because she underestimated her opponent and believed her own press.
In a post on CNN’s political site, the analysts compare Dole's race with that of incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, a moderate Republican from Maine, Barb Barrett reports:
On the other hand, North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole, once regarded as a lock for re-election, looks as if she is about to fall at the hands of Democratic challenger Kay Hagan.
How did Dole become more endangered than Collins?
They say Dole didn't recognize that Hagan would pose a legitimate threat, and that Dole figured her early, strong poll numbers would hold up.
They also say the early advertising from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, along with the unexpected surge of support for Sen. Barack Obama here, are helping Hagan.
Stuart Rothenberg says don't count U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole out yet.
The editor of The Rothenberg Political Report and longtime Washington columnist says that the North Carolina Senate race still has some breathing room in a column today:
Dole is increasingly regarded as political roadkill by campaign observers, but reports of her electoral demise may be greatly exaggerated.
Yes, Dole doesn't have the financial advantage that she should at this time, hasn't returned to her state often enough, and for too long failed to appreciate the danger that she was in. While her poll numbers were good initially, her popularity nose-dived after Democratic attacks on her ineffectiveness in the Senate.
But the National Republican Senatorial Committee's independent expenditure effort has begun in the Tar Heel State, and Dole's campaign has finally become more aggressive. Challenger Kay Hagan remained unscathed (and undefined) until recently, and the GOP attacks are likely to help Dole improve her position in the contest.
Still, that only means that the Republican Senator is in a dogfight and still seriously vulnerable, hardly the position Dole expected to find herself in.
He notes that Republicans are starting to brand Democrat Hagan as "a big taxer."
Stuart Rothenberg says North Carolina is in play.
The editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report wrote on his blog that it's one of six to 10 states that could switch from Republican to Democrat and vice versa in the presidential race:
Four states won twice by George W. Bush and ordinarily in the GOP’s column — Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio — should be prime Democratic targets. The first three have large numbers of upscale white voters who may respond to Obama’s appeal, while the closeness of the race in Ohio four years ago suggests an ongoing Democratic opportunity.
This is a variation of the "New South" argument that Dome has noted before.
Hat Tip: Chris Kromm
* Gov. Mike Easley will appear at a high-dollar fundraiser for state Sen. Kay Hagan's U.S. Senate campaign in Greensboro Nov. 26. (Ed Cone)
* John Edwards unveils $400 million plan for treating veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder, allows them to seek outside care. (AP)
* Political observer Stuart Rothenberg says U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler's seat appears "not to be in play in 2008" despite Republican leanings of his district. (Roll Call)
* Clean Water Management Trust Fund sticks to cap on grants for wastewater projects to $3 million in any three-year period. (N&O)
Could John Edwards have won another term in the Senate?
In a column in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg argues that the former North Carolina senator may have hard a harder time than he lets on.
Edwards has argued that he is the only Democratic presidential candidate who has won "in a red state" against the "Jesse Helms machine," no less.
But Rothenberg says Edwards had a "relatively liberal record" in Congress that might have made a race against now Sen. Richard Burr competitive.
And his presence on the the presidential ticket didn't help the Democrats pick up any Southern states in 2004.
Burr beat future UNC President Erskine Bowles that year, 51.6 to 47 percent. (Libertarian Tom Bailey picked up 1.4 percent.)
