newsobserver.com projects - Mike Gravel - Comments

Re: Choose-Your-Own Adventure Primary

JohnHood — Tue, 06 May 2008 12:19:19 -0400

Uh, Ryan, didn't you already know that about Munger? It's not like he tries to hide it or anything.

Re: Choose-Your-Own Adventure Primary

radiogirl — Tue, 06 May 2008 10:54:30 -0400

OMG - I used to love those books as a kid, too.

And can I just add you're at your best when you're a little snarky? Love it. My chief regret about being out on the trail tonight is that I'll miss Dan Rather's bizarre metaphor of the night.

Re: How the Congressional districts lean

TomJensen — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 16:25:16 -0500

Liam is correct that the margin of error for each Congressional district would be quite high.

PPP's crosstabs are as good as anyone else's though- you would have to do a poll of 5,200 people to get it statistically significant at the Congressional district level and no legitimate polling company tends to do a poll with much more than 1,500 respondents- usually it's 400-600.

Re: How the Congressional districts lean

liam — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 16:15:38 -0500

My concern has to do with sample size in each district. For example, how many residents of the 2nd were surveyed and claimed they were democratic primary voters. When sample sizes get down to the low double digits out of a statewide poll of 600, the chance for error greatly increases.

PPP's polling is good for getting reactions quickly, but not for getting dirty in the cross-tabs.

Re: How the Congressional districts lean

bmullis — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 15:47:55 -0500

I wonder if there are other significant cleavages that Jensen may be ignoring in this analysis due to his own biases (the majority of his past analysis typically centers on race), but it is an obvious analytical approach in this campaign.