newsobserver.com projects - Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals' - Comments

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

JohnHood — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 18:36:40 -0400

I understand what your task is here, Ryan. I was just observing that differentiating between the Southeast and the Deep South/Gulf Coast is hardly bizarre.

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:18:57 -0400

Word choice matters. If you want to say we have "one of the highest rates" in the Southeast, I've got no problem with that. If you want to define the Southeast in a way that most people would agree with, same deal. If you want to say we have the highest tax rate of our bordering states, or the Atlantic South Coast or whatever, again no problem.

The goal of the Claims Department is not to evaluate who has the best tax plan etc. etc. but to determine if the claims made in an ad are true.

— RTB

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

JohnHood — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 13:17:03 -0400

Ryan,

I know you explored many different definitions of the Southeast, and regional delineations are debatable, but JLF's use of the term "Southeast" to describe the Southern coast of the U.S. is hardly "bizarre." Plenty of folks distinguish between the Virginia-to-Florida region, called various things, and the Deep South. The two groups have distinguishable political and economic cultures (as I learned a couple of decades ago in a class taught by John Shelton Reed, as it happens). For example, check out how the election-projection site FiveThirtyEight.com groups the states:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

And you'll see that their "South Coast" grouping includes VA, NC, SC, GA, and FL and their "Gulf Coast" grouping includes the Deep South states of AL, MS, LA, and TX. They then chose to put Arkansas and Tennessee into a "Highlands" group that includes border states. I think it makes more sense to group the former into the Deep South and the latter into the Southeast, but neither choice should be seen as "bizarre."

I also don't think the issue matters all that much. If politicians said NC has "one of the highest tax burdens in the Southeast" or "South," they would be stating the truth.

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:33:20 -0400

Interesting point. Thanks for sharing.

— RTB

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

scharrison — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:30:37 -0400

"During those five years, the state's overall debt went from $3.5 billion to $6.9 billion"

I've never been a big fan of debt Ryan, but until the economy does a turnaround, you're going to see (most) individual states' debt burdens rising. As a matter of fact, it is (or should be) one of the components used to determine the total tax burden per state, because in the absence of an economic turnaround, those bonds will have to be covered by increasing revenue or cutting spending.

It's also how many states get away with keeping their tax burden (relatively) low compared to their neighbors. If you examine the per capita debt burden for Virginia ($2,049) and South Carolina ($2,661), you'll see they're higher than North Carolina ($1,653). These stats are from 2005 and may have changed some, but you get the picture. Some of our neighbors (have been) borrowing more than we have, and that burden rests on the shoulders of each states' citizens.

JLF knows this and chose to ignore it, which is just one more example of their partisan bent.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/state_local_govt_finances_employment/state_government_finances.html

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 08:01:58 -0400

It is bizarre. Get out a map and color in the states they're using for this analysis. What's the definition of Southeast: States that were part of the Confederacy and border the Atlantic but not the Gulf of Mexico exclusively and/or are a major capital for country music? Look, there are a number of combinations of states that they could have used that are defensible, but this one is not.

— RTB

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 07:57:15 -0400

Language, please.

— RTB

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

Indy1776 — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 07:51:42 -0400

But your use of the word "bizarre" is more than semantics. It shows a slanted view.

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

MeckDeck — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 00:14:02 -0400

Uh, maybe because Tenn. shares a border with NC but Bama does not? That Nashville and Memphis are peers that compete with Charlotte and Raleigh, Birmingham not so much?

Seriously, this vetting of ads has become laughable if all it boils down to is a reporter substituting his value judgments for those of campaign.

NC has damn high state taxes, especially on top earners. That is the big picture.

JAT

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 21:19:12 -0400

I blogged extensively about definitions of the Southeast. Obviously everyone has a different opinion on how far west and how far north to go, and you could argue all day long about the semantics.

But I don't see how you can stretch all the way to Memphis, but not include folks in Birmingham — 230 miles to the southeast.

— RTB

Re: Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

tangoz — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 21:09:23 -0400

How do you figure bizarre? Louisiana is in the south and is south central.
How can you say Arkansas is southeast? Arkansas is WEST of the Mississippi. Calling Arkansas southeast is bizarre.
If Kentucky is southeast, why isn't Maryland southeast? The only stretch you go is Alabama can be considered southeast and Mississippi can be south central or southeast.

So yes NC is the highest taxed state in the southeast.
John Locke Foundation is not bizarre, but the N&O is becoming that.

Ryan, did they teach you geography in that liberal arts school?

Claims Dept: NRSC's 'Gold Medals'

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:57:02 -0400

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has a new ad attacking Democratic candidate Kay Hagan's record as a state senator.

What it says: The ad shows images of Kay Hagan with graphics similar to the Olympics. Narrator: "What if they gave gold medals for financial irresponsibility?" Announcer: "The gold medal goes to Kay Hagan." Narrator: "Budget writer Kay Hagan helped double state debt. The gold for government waste?" Sports announcer: "Kay Hagan." Narrator: "Hagan's budgets pushed North Carolina to the highest taxes in the Southeast. And the gold for twisting the truth?" Sports announcer: "Kay Hagan." Narrator: "The press said Hagan’s TV ad was 'overstated, inaccurate.'" Sports announcer: "Kay Hagan." Narrator: "The National Republican Senatorial Committee is responsible for the content of this ad." The ad says "Highest Taxes in Southeast 2006."

The background: The ad raises three issues: high taxes, state debt and a previous Hagan ad.

TAXES: Every year, the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, analyzes the combined state and local tax burden in all 50 states.

According to its overall ranking, North Carolina had the 17th highest burden in 2006.

The think tank does not break out the rankings by region, but the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank in Raleigh, has compared those numbers to other states in the region.

The Locke Foundation defines the Southeast as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the only federal agency to define the Southeast, includes those states as well as Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi and West Virginia.

If those states were included, North Carolina would have been second highest in 2006, after Arkansas.

DEBT: The state constitution requires the legislature to balance the budget, so North Carolina's debt does not come from annual budget deficits.

Instead, the debt comes from bonds issued by the state to pave highways, build jails and college buildings and pay for other projects. The bonds are backed by the state's expected tax revenue.

From 2002 to 2007, Hagan was a co-chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations committee.

During those five years, the state's overall debt went from $3.5 billion to $6.9 billion — nearly doubling.

However, the increased debt has not hurt North Carolina's credit rating. The three agencies that rate government bonds — Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's — each give it a top-tier ranking.

North Carolina is one of only seven states to have top rankings from all three.

HAGAN'S ADS: In an ad run in August, Hagan's campaign claimed that she "reach(ed) across party lines to ban driver's licenses for illegal immigrants."

A previous Claims Department by the N&O found that claim overstated the supporting role she played in that bill and the Senate Democrats' previous opposition to stronger proposals from Republicans.

The ad's "account of Hagan's role on the driver's license bill is overstated and inaccurate," the article noted.

Is it accurate? Yes and no. The claims about state debt and Hagan's previous ad are true. But the definition of the Southeast used by the John Locke Foundation is bizarre. Though the ad correctly cites the foundation's research, the claim is misleading.

— Ryan Teague Beckwith