newsobserver.com projects - Ads make a difference in Senate race - Comments

Re: Ads make a difference in Senate race

cthayes75 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:51:08 -0400

Not really. While there is definitely a collection of hard core Libertarian voters, in polls, people who respond for the Libertarian are generally dissatisfied Republicans lodging a protest vote.

Almost all of them will come back around and vote R. Especially if the race is close.

Re: Ads make a difference in Senate race

jjsmith2 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:18:44 -0400

rather presumptuous for you to assume the Cole supporters would support Dole.

Re: Ads make a difference in Senate race

cthayes75 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 12:27:40 -0400

One poll does not mean the race is tightening. If Civitas and PPP's results in the next 2 weeks show a 5 point race, then we can make an assumption that it has.

Everyone knows there is no way Cole is going to get 7% of the vote. Bump him back down to 2% and give that 5% back to Dole and she's right back up by 10 -- just about where she's been in every other poll.

What's more noteworthy is Hagan can't crack the low 40s, while Dole is consistently around 50. Until that changes, nothing has changed in this race.

Wake me up when Hagan polls above 45.

Ads make a difference in Senate race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 11:42:30 -0400

Advertising is having a huge effect in the Senate race.

With Democratic candidate Kay Hagan on the air during the May primary, her numbers improved against U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Dole then got a bump from her own ads, but another round of ads attacking Dole has narrowed the gap again. The entrance of Libertarian Chris Cole to the race also complicated things.

Here are the numbers:

May 8-9: Dole 48, Hagan 43
May 14-17: Dole 45, Hagan 43
May 17-19: Dole 50, Hagan 46
May 28-29: Dole 47, Hagan 39
June 10: Dole 53, Hagan 39
June 18: Dole 48, Hagan 38
June 26-29: Dole 51, Hagan 37
July 12-14: Dole 54, Hagan 42
July 15: Dole 54, Hagan 43
July 14-16: Dole 47, Hagan 38, Cole 2
July 23-27: Dole 49, Hagan 40, Cole 4
July 28-30: Dole 50, Hagan 42
Aug. 9-11: Dole 46, Hagan 41, Cole 7

In all of the polls, Dole is ahead, but her lead ranges from as high as 14 points in June to as low as two points in mid May. The recent tightening shows this could be a volatile race.