How Obama would do in North Carolina

ryanteaguebeckwith — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 14:16:07 -0500

How would Barack Obama fare in North Carolina's primary?

An interesting analysis Dome saw recently points out that the Illinois senator has done well in states that either have fewer than 5 percent black voters or more than 20 percent.

The thinking: In states with a smaller black population (read: Iowa), white voters are not threatened by a black politician, unlike those with a mid-sized black population (read: New Jersey). In states with a larger black population (read: Georgia), it doesn't matter since he picks up extra votes.

As of Dec. 31, 20.1 percent of North Carolina voters were black, including 37.7 percent of registered Democrats and 11.4 percent of unaffiliated voters.

Democratic pollster Tom Jensen said that the first post-Edwards tracking poll by Public Policy Polling lends credence to the idea. In the as-yet unreleased poll, Hillary Clinton led by 17 points among white voters, while Obama led by 48 points among black voters.

"That would fit the theory you're describing," Jensen told Dome.

The full results of the poll will be released tomorrow.

newsobserver.com projects - How Obama would do in North Carolina - Comments

How Obama would do in North Carolina