U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole would beat state Rep. Grier Martin or state Sen. Kay Hagan in next year's Senate race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey.
Martin, a Raleigh Democrat, came closer, losing 37 percent to Dole's 43 percent. Dole outpaced Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, 43 percent to 27 percent.
To make up for the Democrats' low name recognition, pollsters added short descriptions of them to the survey.
The July 9 survey of 553 likely general election voters had a 4.2 percent margin of error.
Public Policy Polling is a Raleigh firm that frequently works for Democratic candidates.
Comments
Re: Against Dole, hypothetically
July 12, 2007 - 12:48pm — zoobatmaniaIt's funny, I thought title meant the race would be against a "hypothetical" Elizabeth Dole, since she has visited the state fewer times in her term than the Maryland men's basketball team.
Also, I love how the N&O continues running that high school yearbook photo of Elizabeth Dole. So much for research and journalism.
Re: Against Dole, hypothetically
July 12, 2007 - 11:04am — SenateThe short descriptions were as favorable as possible, particularly for Martin. It portrays Martin as he would portray himself in a vacuum.
Imagine what the response would have been if PPP had portrayed Martin as Dole's campaign team would in television ads. Tax raising liberal lawyer, anti-lottery=anti-education, etc. He would have been losing by 25-30 points.
The truth is campaigns aren't run in a vacuum (unless one candidate has no money, see Patrick Ballantine). And Martin is probably down by 15-20 points against Dole right now.
He is an interesting potential candidate but like any of the Democrats currently being discussed as potential contenders against Dole he has an uphill climb.
Given how well females have done in recent NC elections, I think a woman like Hagan might ultimately have a better chance.
Slim analysis
July 12, 2007 - 10:12am — jfg5025U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole would beat state Rep. Grier Martin or state Sen. Kay Hagan in next year's Senate race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey.
Yes, you are correct. If the election were held today Elizabeth Dole would beat Grier Martin and Kay Hagan. But the election is not today, its in November of 2008. Most, if not all, pollsters will tell you that an incumbent polling below 50% this far out from Election Day is in serious trouble. Does that mean Dole is going to lose? No. She is still the favorite. It just means that she is vulnerable.
You are missing the story here. 43% to 37% is very close for a potential challenger this far out from Election Day.
Justin Guillory
Public Policy Polling